Social inequality in prevalence of NCD risk factors: a cross-sectional analysis from the population-based Tromsø Study 2015-2016.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to examine associations between educational level, serving as an indicator of socioeconomic position, and prevalence of WHO-established leading behavioural and biological risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), in middle-aged to older women and men. DESIGN: Population-based cross-sectional study. SETTING: All inhabitants of the municipality of Tromsø, Norway, aged ≥40 years, were invited to the seventh survey (2015-2016) of the Tromsø Study; an ongoing population-based cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Of the 32 591 invited; 65% attended, and a total of 21 069 women (53%) and men aged 40-99 years were included in our study. OUTCOME MEASURES: We assessed associations between educational level and NCD behavioural and biological risk factors: daily smoking, physical inactivity (sedentary in leisure time), insufficient fruit/vegetable intake (<5 units/day), harmful alcohol use (>10 g/day in women, >20 g/day in men), hypertension, obesity, intermediate hyperglycaemia and hypercholesterolaemia. These were expressed as odds ratios (OR) per unit decrease in educational level, with 95% CIs, in women and men. RESULTS: In women (results were not significantly different in men), we observed statistically significant associations between lower educational levels and higher odds of daily smoking (OR 1.69; 95% CI 1.60 to 1.78), physical inactivity (OR 1.38; 95% CI 1.31 to 1.46), insufficient fruit/vegetable intake (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.43 to 1.66), hypertension (OR 1.25; 95% CI 1.20 to 1.30), obesity (OR 1.23; 95% CI 1.18 to 1.29), intermediate hyperglycaemia (OR 1.12; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.19), and hypercholesterolaemia (OR 1.07; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.12), and lower odds of harmful alcohol use (OR 0.75; 95% CI 0.72 to 0.78). CONCLUSION: We found statistically significant educational gradients in women and men for all WHO-established leading NCD risk factors within a Nordic middle-aged to older general population. The prevalence of all risk factors increased at lower educational levels, except for harmful alcohol use, which increased at higher educational levels.

Stroke and bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation with CHA2DS2-VASC risk score of one: the Norwegian AFNOR study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The benefit of oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy in atrial fibrillation (AF) and intermediate stroke risk is debated. In a nationwide Norwegian cohort with a non-sex CHA2DS2-VASc risk score of one, this study aimed to investigate (i) stroke and bleeding risk in AF patients with and without OAC treatment, and (ii) the risk of stroke in non-anticoagulated individuals with and without AF. METHODS: A total of 1 118 762 individuals including 34 460 AF patients were followed during 2011-18 until ischaemic stroke, intracranial haemorrhage, increased CHA2DS2-VASc score, or study end. One-year incidence rates (IRs) were calculated as events per 100 person-years (%/py). Cox regression models provided adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs [95% confidence intervals]). RESULTS: Among AF patients, the ischaemic stroke IR was 0.51%/py in OAC users and 1.05%/py in non-users (aHR 0.47 [0.37-0.59]). Intracranial haemorrhage IR was 0.28%/py in OAC users and 0.19%/py in non-users (aHR 1.23 [0.88-1.72]). Oral anticoagulant use was associated with an increased risk of major bleeding (aHR 1.37 [1.16-1.63]) but lower risk of the combined outcome of ischaemic stroke, major bleeding, and mortality (aHR 0.57 [0.51-0.63]). Non-anticoagulated individuals with AF had higher risk of ischaemic stroke compared to non-AF individuals with the same risk profile (aHR 2.47 [2.17-2.81]). CONCLUSIONS: In AF patients at intermediate risk of stroke, OAC use was associated with overall favourable clinical outcomes. Non-anticoagulated AF patients had higher risk of ischaemic stroke compared to the general population without AF with the same risk profile.

National health registries - a 'goldmine' for studying non-communicable disease occurrence in Norway - the NCDNOR project.

To estimate occurrence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) over the life-course in the Norwegian population, national health registries are a vital source of information since they fully represent the entire non-institutionalised population. However, as they are mainly established for administrative purposes, more knowledge about how NCDs are recorded in the registries is needed. To establish this, we begin by counting the number of individuals registered annually with one or more NCDs in any of the registries. The study population includes all inhabitants who lived in Norway from 2004 to 2020 (N~6.4m). The NCD outcomes are diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, chronic obstructive lung diseases, cancer and mental disorders/substance use disorders. Further, we included hip fractures in our NCD concept. The data sources used to identify individuals with NCDs, including detailed information on diagnoses in primary and secondary health care and dispensings of prescription drugs, are the Cancer Registry of Norway, The Norwegian Patient Registry, The Norwegian Control and Payment of Health Reimbursement database, and The Norwegian Prescription Database. The number of individuals registered annually with an NCD diagnosis and/or a dispensed NCD drug increased over the study period. Changes over time may reflect changes in disease incidence and prevalence, but also changes in disease-specific guidelines, reimbursement schemes and access to and use of health services. Data from more than one health registry to identify individuals with NCDs are needed since the registries reflect different levels of health care services and therefore may reflect disease severity.

Clustering and trajectories of key noncommunicable disease risk factors in Norway: the NCDNOR project.

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a leading cause of premature death globally and have common preventable risk factors. In Norway, the NCDNOR-project aims at establishing new knowledge in the prevention of NCDs by combining information from national registries with data from population-based health studies. In the present study, we aimed to harmonize data on key NCD risk factors from the health studies, describe clustering of risk factors using intersection diagrams and latent class analysis, and identify long-term risk factor trajectories using latent class mixed models. The harmonized study sample consisted of 808,732 individuals (1,197,158 participations). Two-thirds were exposed to ≥ 1 NCD risk factor (daily smoking, physical inactivity, obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia or hypertriglyceridaemia). In individuals exposed to ≥ 2 risk factors (24%), we identified five distinct clusters, all characterized by fewer years of education and lower income compared to individuals exposed to < 2 risk factors. We identified distinct long-term trajectories of smoking intensity, leisure-time physical activity, body mass index, blood pressure, and blood lipids. Individuals in the trajectories tended to differ across sex, education, and body mass index. This provides important insights into the mechanisms by which NCD risk factors can occur and may help the development of interventions aimed at preventing NCDs.

Carotid Plaque Score for Stroke and Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in a Middle-Aged Cohort From the General Population.

Background We aimed to explore the predictive value of the carotid plaque score, compared with the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) risk prediction algorithm, on incident ischemic stroke and major adverse cardiovascular events and establish a prognostic cutoff of the carotid plaque score. Methods and Results In the prospective ACE 1950 (Akershus Cardiac Examination 1950 study), carotid plaque score was calculated with ultrasonography at inclusion in 2012 to 2015. The largest plaque diameter in each extracranial segment of the carotid artery on both sides was scored from 0 to 3 points. The sum of points in all segments provided the carotid plaque score. The cohort was followed up by linkage to national registries for incident ischemic stroke and major adverse cardiovascular events (nonfatal ischemic stroke, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death) throughout 2020. Carotid plaque score was available in 3650 (98.5%) participants, with mean±SD age of 63.9±0.64 years at inclusion. Only 462 (12.7%) participants were free of plaque, and and 970 (26.6%) had a carotid plaque score of >3. Carotid plaque score predicted ischemic stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.25 [95% CI, 1.15-1.36]) and major adverse cardiovascular events (HR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.14-1.27]) after adjustment for SCORE2 and provided strong incremental prognostic information to SCORE2. The best cutoff value of carotid plaque score for ischemic stroke was >3, with positive predictive value of 2.5% and negative predictive value of 99.3%. Conclusions The carotid plaque score is a strong predictor of ischemic stroke and major adverse cardiovascular events, and it provides incremental prognostic information to SCORE2 for risk prediction. A cutoff score of >3 seems to be suitable to discriminate high-risk subjects. Registration Information clinicaltrials.gov. Identifier: NCT01555411.

Stroke After SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccine: A Nationwide Registry Study.

BACKGROUND: Whether the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines may cause a transient increased stroke risk is uncertain. METHODS: In a registry-based cohort of all adult residents at December 27, 2020, in Norway, we linked individual-level data on COVID-19 vaccination, positive SARS-CoV-2 test, hospital admissions, cause of death, health care worker status, and nursing home resident status extracted from the Emergency Preparedness Register for COVID-19 in Norway. The cohort was followed for incident intracerebral bleeding, ischemic stroke, and subarachnoid hemorrhage within the first 28 days after the first/second or third dose of mRNA vaccination until January 24, 2022. Stroke risk after vaccination relative to time not exposed to vaccination was assessed by Cox proportional hazard ratio, adjusted for age, sex, risk groups, health care personnel, and nursing home resident. RESULTS: The cohort included 4 139 888 people, 49.8% women, and 6.7% were ≥80 years of age. During the first 28 days after an mRNA vaccine, 2104 people experienced a stroke (82% ischemic stroke, 13% intracerebral hemorrhage, and 5% subarachnoid hemorrhage). Adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) after the first/second and after the third mRNA vaccine doses were 0.92 (0.85-1.00) and 0.89 (0.73-1.08) for ischemic stroke, 0.81 (0.67-0.98) and 1.05 (0.64-1.71) for intracerebral hemorrhage, and 0.64 (0.46-0.87) and 1.12 (0.57-2.19) for subarachnoid hemorrhage, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We did not find increased risk of stroke during the first 28 days after an mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.

Systolic blood pressure at age 40 and cognitive function 25 years later: the Akershus Cardiac Examination (ACE) 1950 Study.

OBJECTIVES: Hypertension in midlife is a risk factor for cognitive impairment. Still, the ideal midlife blood pressure (BP) remains unknown. We examined associations between different systolic blood pressure (SBP) levels at the age of 40-43 years and change in SBP over a 25-year period with cognitive function at age 62-65 years. METHODS: We included 2424 individuals born in 1950 who had participated both in the Age 40 Program (1990-1993) and the Akershus Cardiac Examination (ACE) 1950 Study (2012-2015). The exposure was SBP at age 40-43 years and the outcome was cognitive function at age 62-65 years, assessed with Montreal Cognitive Assessment, Delayed recall trial from the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease Word List Memory Task, and Trail Making Test part B (TMT B). RESULTS: Participants were 40.1 ±â€Š0.3 years old with mean SPB 128 ±â€Š13 mmHg at the Age 40 Program, and 63.9 ±â€Š0.6 years old with mean SPB 138 ±â€Š18 at the ACE 1950 Study. Adjusted linear regressions showed no associations between SBP and subsequent cognitive function. In logistic regressions, individuals with SBP ≥140 mmHg, compared to individuals with SBP <120 mmHg (odds ratio 2.29, 95% confidence interval 1.28-4.10, P-value 0.005) had increased risk of an abnormal TMT B-score. Change in SBP during the 25-year follow-up was not associated with cognitive function. CONCLUSIONS: SBP ≥140 mmHg at age 40-43 was associated with reduced capacity on TMT B, a domain specific cognitive test sensitive to vascular impairment. No other associations were found between SBP, or change in SBP, and cognitive function.

Serial blood pressure measurements, left ventricular remodelling and cardiovascular outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is a risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease. Whether serial blood pressure (BP) measurements are more closely associated with subclinical left ventricular (LV) remodelling and better predict risk of cardiovascular events over individual BP measurements are not known. METHODS: We assessed systolic BP, diastolic BP and pulse pressure at several time points during adulthood in 1333 women and 1211 men participating in the Akershus Cardiac Examination 1950 Study. We defined serial BP measurements as the sum of averaged BPs from adjacent consecutive visits indexed to total exposure time between measurements. We assessed the associations between serial and individual BP measurements and (1) LV structure, function and volumes and (2) incident myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, heart failure and cardiovascular death. RESULTS: All indices of higher serial BP measurements were associated with increased indexed LV mass, and the associations were stronger than those of individual BP measurements. Serial diastolic BP pressure was strongly and inversely associated with LV systolic function, while higher serial systolic BP was primarily associated with higher LV volumes. Both serial systolic (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.10, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.17) and diastolic BPs (IRR 1.14, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.27) were associated with increased incidence of clinical events. CONCLUSION: In healthy community dwellers without established cardiovascular disease, different serial BP indices associate strongly with LV remodelling and cardiovascular outcomes. Whether the use of serial BP indices for guiding treatment is superior to individual measurements should be explored in additional prospective studies.

Prevalence and Incidence Rates of Atrial Fibrillation in Denmark 2004-2018.

Purpose: To estimate the prevalence and incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Denmark during 2004-2018 and to investigate whether methodological choices influence these estimates. Patients and Methods: A register-based cohort study was conducted of all individuals aged ≥18 years in Denmark 2004-2018. The cumulative prevalence of AF at the end of the study period was calculated as the number of AF cases alive with at least one inpatient or two outpatient diagnoses during 1994-2018 divided by the number of Danish residents in 2018. Incidence rates were calculated as the number of annual AF cases with no previous diagnosis in the past 10 years (ie, a 10-year washout period) divided by the person-time contributed by the population free of AF on 1 January in the same calendar year. Furthermore, the influence of varying case definitions was investigated. Results: The cumulative prevalence of AF was 3.0% in 2018. The incidence rate increased from 391 to 481 per 100,000 person-years (PYs) from 2004 to 2015 (1.7% average annual increase) after which it declined to 367 per 100,000 PYs in 2018 (8.5% average annual decrease). This pattern was observed in both sexes irrespective of age. Methodological choices, particularly the case definition's strictness and the length of the washout period, had a substantial influence on the reported estimates. Conclusion: The cumulative prevalence of AF is currently around 3.0% in the Danish population, but the incidence has declined since 2015. As these estimates are influenced by methodological choices, future studies should strive for precise reporting of study methodology.

Achievements of primary prevention targets in individuals with high risk of cardiovascular disease: an 8-year follow-up of the Tromsø study.

Aims: To study change over 8 years in cardiovascular risk, achievement of national guideline-based treatment targets of lipids, blood pressure (BP) and smoking in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), medication use, and characteristics associated with target achievement among individuals with high CVD risk in a general population. Methods and results: We followed 2524 women and men aged 40-79 years with high risk of CVD attending the population-based Tromsø study in 2007-08 (Tromsø6) to their participation in the next survey in 2015-16 (Tromsø7). We used descriptive statistics and regression models to study change in CVD risk and medication use, and characteristics associated with treatment target achievement. In total, 71.4% reported use of BP- and/or lipid-lowering medication at second screening. Overall, CVD risk decreased during follow-up, with a larger decrease among medication users compared with non-users. Treatment target achievement was 31.0% for total cholesterol <5 mmol/L, 27.3% for LDL cholesterol <3 mmol/L, 43.4% for BP <140/90 (<135/85 if diabetes) mmHg, and 85.4% for non-smoking. A total of 9.8% reached all treatment targets combined. Baseline risk factor levels and current medication use had the strongest associations with treatment target achievement. Conclusion: We found an overall improvement in CVD risk factors among high-risk individuals over 8 years. However, guideline-based treatment target achievement was relatively low for all risk factors except smoking. Medication use was the strongest characteristic associated with achieving treatment targets. This study has demonstrated that primary prevention of CVD continues to remain a major challenge.

Associations between cardiovascular risk factors, biomarkers, and left ventricular mechanical dispersion: insights from the ACE 1950 Study.

Aims: Mechanical dispersion measures left ventricular contraction heterogeneity and is associated with the risk of sudden cardiac death. However, the associations between mechanical dispersion and cardiovascular risk factors in early mid-life, and established biomarkers of sub-clinical myocardial injury and dysfunction are not known. We aimed to examine this in the general population. Methods and results: During 2012-15, we included 2527 Norwegian individuals from the general population born in 1950, with measurements of mechanical dispersion by 2D speckle tracking echocardiography and concentrations of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) available. Mechanical dispersion was calculated as the standard deviation of the contraction duration of 17 strain segments. We assessed the associations between mechanical dispersion, concentrations of hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP, and cardiovascular risk factors collected at a national health screening survey two decades earlier. At echocardiography baseline, median age was 64 (interquartile range 63.5-64.5) years, 49.8% were women, 59.1% had hypertension, and 5.9% reported established coronary artery disease. Median mechanical dispersion was 38.0 (29.5-47.0) ms, median hs-cTnT concentration 6 (4-8) ng/L, and the median NT-proBNP concentration 54 (34-93) ng/L. Mechanical dispersion was associated with both hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP concentrations in multivariable models adjusted for clinical and echocardiographic variables. High body mass index, serum triglyceride concentrations, and low resting heart rate at Age 40 were independently associated with increased mechanical dispersion two decades later. Conclusion: Established risk factors at Age 40 are associated with mechanical dispersion two decades later, and mechanical dispersion is cross-sectionally associated with biomarkers of subclinical myocardial injury and dysfunction.

Impact of Blood Pressure in the Early 40s on Left Atrial Volumes in the Mid-60s: Data From the ACE 1950 Study.

Background Echocardiographic measures of left atrial volumes are powerful predictors of cardiovascular events and important for assessing diastolic dysfunction. Despite this, there is limited knowledge of factors influencing left atrial remodeling. In particular, the impact of blood pressure in those in their early 40s on left atrial volumes later in life has not been sufficiently elucidated. Methods and Results We linked data from individuals born in 1950 who participated in the Age 40 Program, and the ACE (Akershus Cardiac Examination) 1950 Study. We divided the study population into quartiles of systolic blood pressure in their early 40s and assessed the proportion of individuals with an enlarged left atrium in their mid-60s. The associations between blood pressure and left atrial volumes were assessed in linear regression analyses. Of the 2591 individuals included in this study, 1302 (50.3%) were women, and the mean age in the Age 40 Program was 40.1±0.3 years. Systolic blood pressure was 128.1±13.6 mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure was 78.3±9.5 mm Hg. Mean age in the ACE 1950 Study was 64.0±0.6 years. The proportion of individuals with an enlarged left atrium increased across the quartiles of systolic blood pressure (P=0.001). Systolic blood pressure was independently associated with left atrial volumes; the end-systolic volume was 0.09 mL (95% CI, 0.04-0.14 mL) larger per 1-mm Hg higher systolic blood pressure. Conclusions Our findings suggest that increased blood pressure in those in their early 40s is relevant for left atrial remodeling later in life. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01555411.

Nine-fold higher risk of acute myocardial infarction in subjects with type 1 diabetes compared to controls in Norway 1973-2017.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to study the cumulative incidence and risk factors (sex, age, calendar year of diabetes onset, country of origin and educational level) of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in subjects with type 1 diabetes and matched controls. METHODS: A nationwide cohort of subjects with type 1 diabetes diagnosed at age < 15 years in Norway during 1973-2000 was followed until the first AMI event, emigration, death or 31st of December 2017. The Norwegian Childhood Diabetes Registry was linked to five nationwide registries, and up to ten sex- and age-matched controls per case were included. RESULTS: Among 7086 subjects with type 1 diabetes, 170 (2.4%) were identified with incident AMI, compared to 193 (0.3%) of 69,356 controls. Mean age and diabetes duration at first AMI was 40.8 years and 30.6 years, respectively. The probability of AMI after 40 years of follow-up was 8.0% in subjects with type 1 diabetes and 1.1% in controls, aHR 9.05 (95% CI 7.18-11.41). In type 1 diabetes, male sex (aHR 1.45), higher age at onset of diabetes and lower education (higher compared to lower, aHR 0.38) were significantly associated with higher risk of AMI. There was no significant time trend in AMI by calendar year of diabetes onset. CONCLUSIONS: We found nine-fold excess risk of AMI in subjects with type 1 diabetes, and three-fold higher risk in subjects with low versus high education. These results highlight a strengthened focus on prevention of cardiovascular disease, and diabetes education tailored to the subjects' educational background.

Treatable Traits in Misdiagnosed Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Data from the Akershus Cardiac Examination 1950 Study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is often misdiagnosed. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of misdiagnosed COPD in middle-aged Norwegians, and to assess potentially treatable clinical traits in over- and undiagnosed individuals. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Akershus Cardiac Examination (ACE) 1950 Study is a population-based study of the 1950 birth cohort of Akershus county including 3706 participants aged 62-65 years at baseline. COPD was defined as a forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) to forced vital capacity (FVC) ratio < lower limit of normal (LLN). Misdiagnosed COPD was defined according to self-reported COPD. A total of 259 (7.1%) participants had spirometry confirmed COPD. Of these, only 72 (28%) reported having COPD, thus 187 (72%) were undiagnosed. A total of 92 (2.5%) of the 164 particpants who reported having COPD had an FEV1/FVC ratio ≥ LLN and were overdiagnosed. They had lower lung function, and more respiratory symptoms, self-reported asthma, eosinophils, and sleep apnea than other non-COPD participants . The main predictor of being overdiagnosed was overweight. Spirometry in participants reporting wheezing or cough and current smokers or participants with ≥20 tobacco pack-year history would have identified 85% of the undiagnosed cases. CONCLUSION: Both over- and underdiagnosis of COPD is frequent. Undiagnosed individuals have better lung function and less symptoms, but similar prevalence of comorbidities and systemic inflammation. Overdiagnosed individuals have treatable traits including asthma, eosinophilic inflammation, and sleep apnea. The main predictor of being overdiagnosed was being overweight.

Occupational physical activity and longevity in working men and women in Norway: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest that high occupational physical activity increases mortality risk. However, it is unclear whether this association is causal or can be explained by a complex network of socioeconomic and behavioural factors. We aimed to examine the association between occupational physical activity and longevity, taking a complex network of confounding variables into account. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, we linked data from Norwegian population-based health examination surveys, covering all parts of Norway with data from the National Population and Housing Censuses and the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. 437 378 participants (aged 18-65 years; 48·7% men) self-reported occupational physical activity (mutually exclusive groups: sedentary, walking, walking and lifting, and heavy labour) and were followed up from study entry (between February, 1974, and November, 2002) to death or end of follow-up on Dec 31, 2018, whichever came first. We estimated differences in survival time (death from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer) between occupational physical activity categories using flexible parametric survival models adjusted for confounding factors. FINDINGS: During a median of 28 years (IQR 25-31) from study entry to the end of follow-up, 74 203 (17·0%) of the participants died (all-cause mortality), of which 20 111 (27·1%) of the deaths were due to cardiovascular disease and 29 886 (40·3%) were due to cancer. Crude modelling indicated shorter mean survival times among men in physically active occupations than in those with sedentary occupations. However, this finding was reversed following adjustment for confounding factors (birth cohort, education, income, ethnicity, prevalent cardiovascular disease, smoking, leisure-time physical activity, body-mass index), with estimates suggesting that men in occupations characterised by walking, walking and lifting, and heavy labour had life expectancies equivalent to 0·4 (95% CI -0·1 to 1·0), 0·8 (0·3 to 1·3), and 1·7 (1·2 to 2·3) years longer, respectively, than men in the sedentary referent category. Results for mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer showed a similar pattern. No clear differences in survival times were observed between occupational physical activity groups in women. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that moderate to high occupational physical activity contributes to longevity in men. However, occupational physical activity does not seem to affect longevity in women. These results might inform future physical activity guidelines for public health. FUNDING: The Norwegian Research Council (grant number 249932/F20).

Associations of Binge Drinking With the Risks of Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke: A Study of Pooled Norwegian Health Surveys.

Norwegian health survey data (1987-2003) were analyzed to determine if binge drinking increases the risk of incident major events from ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke. Among current drinkers reporting average alcohol intakes of 2.00-59.99 g/day (n = 44,476), frequent binge drinking (≥5 units at least once per month) was not associated with a greater risk of IHD (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 0.91, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.76, 1.09) or stroke (adjusted HR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.81, 1.19), in comparison with participants who reported that they never or only infrequently (less than once per month) had episodes of binge drinking. Participants with an average alcohol intake of 2.00-59.99 g/day had a lower risk of IHD in comparison with participants with very low intakes (<2.00 g/day), both among frequent binge drinkers (adjusted HR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.80) and among never/infrequent binge drinkers (adjusted HR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.67, 0.84). The findings suggest that frequent binge drinking, independent of average alcohol intake, does not increase the risk of incident IHD or stroke events. However, the findings should be interpreted in light of the limitations of the study design.

Serum Galectin-3 and Subsequent Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Subjects With Childhood-Onset Type 1 Diabetes: A Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To study whether serum galectin-3 and other biomarkers of inflammation predict coronary heart disease (CHD) in subjects with long-standing childhood-onset type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A population-based nationwide cohort of 299 subjects with type 1 diabetes diagnosed in Norway at <15 years of age during 1973-1982 was examined in 2002-2003 at a mean age of 33 years (range 21-44), with mean diabetes duration of 24 years (range 19-30). Subjects were followed through 31 December 2017 for their first CHD event registered by a hospitalization or cause of death using nationwide registries. Stored serum samples were available for 296 subjects and analyzed for interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-6 receptor, IL-18, hs-CRP, matrix metalloproteinase-9, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1 (TIMP-1), galectin-3, and high-sensitivity troponin T. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for CHD per SD increase in biomarker were estimated using Cox regression. RESULTS: Of 295 subjects, 40 (13.6%) had a documented CHD event during a mean follow-up of 14.4 years (range 0.5-16). IL-6 (aHR 1.32 [95% CI 1.07-1.63]), galectin-3 (aHR 1.44 [95% CI 1.09-1.80]), and TIMP-1 (aHR 1.37 [95% CI 1.04-1.81]) were significant predictors of CHD after adjustment for conventional risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Galectin-3 was significantly associated with future CHD in subjects with type 1 diabetes, and if the results are replicated in larger studies, it may aid in prediction together with conventional risk factors for CHD.

Validation of the cardiovascular risk model NORRISK 2 in South Asians and people with diabetes.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the predictive ability of the previously published NORRISK 2 cardiovascular risk model in Norwegian-born and immigrants born in South Asia living in Norway, and to add information about diabetes and ethnicity in an updated model for South Asians and diabetics (NORRISK 2-SADia). Design. We included participants (30-74 years) born in Norway (n = 13,885) or South Asia (n = 1942) from health surveys conducted in Oslo 2000-2003. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor information including self-reported diabetes was linked with information on subsequent acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and acute cerebral stroke in hospital and mortality registry data throughout 2014 from the nationwide CVDNOR project. We developed an updated model using Cox regression with diabetes and South Asian ethnicity as additional predictors. We assessed model performance by Harrell's C and calibration plots. Results. The NORRISK 2 model underestimated the risk in South Asians in all quintiles of predicted risk. The mean predicted 13-year risk by the NORRISK 2 model was 3.9% (95% CI 3.7-4.2) versus observed 7.3% (95% CI 5.9-9.1) in South Asian men and 1.1% (95% CI 1.0-1.2) versus 2.7% (95% CI 1.7-4.2) observed risk in South Asian women. The mean predictions from the NORRISK 2-SADia model were 7.2% (95% CI 6.7-7.6) in South Asian men and 2.7% (95% CI 2.4-3.0) in South Asian women. Conclusions. The NORRISK 2-SADia model improved predictions of CVD substantially in South Asians, whose risks were underestimated by the NORRISK 2 model. The NORRISK 2-SADia model may facilitate more intense preventive measures in this high-risk population.

Prevalence and incidence rates of atrial fibrillation in Norway 2004-2014.

OBJECTIVE: To study time trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the entire Norwegian population from 2004 to 2014, by age and sex, and to estimate the prevalence of AF at the end of the study period. METHODS: A national cohort of patients with AF (≥18 years) was identified from inpatient admissions with AF and deaths with AF as underlying cause (1994-2014), and AF outpatient visits (2008-2014) in the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway (CVDNOR) project. AF admissions or out-of-hospital death from AF, with no AF admission the previous 10 years defined incident AF. Age-standardised incidence rates (IR) and incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated. All AF cases identified through inpatient admissions and outpatient visits and alive as of 31 December 2014 defined AF prevalence. RESULTS: We identified 175 979 incident AF cases (30% primary diagnosis, 69% secondary diagnosis, 0.6% out-of-hospital deaths). AF IRs (95% confidence intervals) per 100 000 person years were stable from 2004 (433 (426-440)) to 2014 (440 (433-447)). IRs were stable or declining across strata of sex and age with the exception of an average yearly increase of 2.4% in 18-44 year-olds: IRR 1.024 (1.014-1.034). In 2014, the prevalence of AF in the adult population was 3.4%. CONCLUSIONS: We found overall stable IRs of AF for the adult Norwegian population from 2004 to 2014. The prevalence of AF was 3.4% at the end of 2014, which is higher than reported in previous studies. Signs of an increasing incidence of early-onset AF (<45 years) are worrying and need further investigation.